Ohio cropland values and cash rental rates are projected to decrease in 2016. According to the Ohio Cropland Values and Cash Rents Survey, bare cropland values in western Ohio are expected to decrease from 4.8 to 11.1 percent in 2016 depending on the region and land class. Cash rents are expected to decline from 5.6 percent to 7.6 percent depending on the region and land class.
Ohio Cropland Values and Cash Rent
Ohio cropland varies significantly in its production capabilities, and consequently cropland values and cash rents vary widely throughout the state. Generally speaking, western Ohio cropland values and cash rents differ from much of southern and eastern Ohio cropland values and cash rents. Factors affecting these rates are land productivity and potential crop return, the variability of those crop returns, field size and shape, drainage, population density, ease of access, market access, local market prices, potential for wildlife damage, field perimeter characteristics, and competition for rented cropland in a region. This fact sheet summarizes data collected for western Ohio cropland values and cash rents.
2016 Study Results
The Western Ohio Cropland Values and Cash Rents study was conducted from February through April in 2016. The opinion-based study surveyed professionals with a knowledge of Ohio’s cropland values and rental rates. Professionals surveyed were farm managers, rural appraisers, agricultural lenders, OSU Extension educators, farmers, landowners, and Farm Service Agency personnel.
The study results are based on 126 surveys returned, analyzed and summarized. Respondents were asked to group their estimates based on three land quality classes: average, top, and poor. Within each land-quality class, respondents were asked to estimate average corn and soybean yields for a five-year period based typical farming practices. Survey respondents were also asked to estimate current bare cropland values and cash rents negotiated in the current or recent year for each land-quality class. Survey results are summarized below for western Ohio with regional summaries (subsets of western Ohio) for northwest Ohio and southwest Ohio.
The measures shown in the following tables are the summary of the survey respondents. The measures shown are the average (or mean), standard deviation indicating the variability of the data from the average measure, and range. Range identified in the tables consists of two numbers: The first is the average plus the standard deviation and the second is the average minus the standard deviation.
Why Range is Important
Range represents the spread of land values and cash rents. When farmers and landowners consider a parcel, it’s helpful to compare not only the average, but also the range measure. The range in these tables represents two-thirds of the responses in the survey, providing reliable data. Also, farmers and landowners need to realize land in a given region does not fall neatly into thirds of each land-quality class (average, top and poor). Typically, little acreage in a given county or region will fall into the top land category, which is usually large tracts of land with highly productive soils. Average land will typically be the majority of land in a given region or county while poor land will tend to have lower productivity soils, steep slopes, poor drainage, smaller tracts, or a combination of these.
Factors Affecting Cash Rental Rates
Ultimately, supply and demand of cropland for rent determines the cash rental rate for each parcel. The expected return from producing crops on a farm parcel and the variability of that return are the primary drivers in determining the rental rates. Many of the following factors contribute to the expected crop return and the variability of that return. Secondary factors may exist and could affect potential rental rates. These secondary factors are also listed.
Expected Crop Return
Rent will vary based on expected crop return. The higher the expected return, the higher the rent will tend to be.
Variability of Crop Return
Land that exhibits highly variable returns may have rents discounted for this factor. For example, land that is poorly drained may exhibit variability of returns due to late plantings during wet springs.
Factors Affecting Expected Crop Return and Variability of Crop Return:
- Land (Soil) Quality: Higher quality soils translate into higher rents.
- Fertility Levels: Higher fertility levels often result in higher cash rents.
- Drainage/Irrigation Capabilities: Better surface and sub-surface drainage of a farm often results in better yields and higher potential cash rent. Likewise, irrigation equipment tied to the land will allow for higher yields, profits and rents.
- Size of Farm/Fields: Large farms/fields typically command higher average cash rent per acre due to the efficiencies gained by operators.
- Shape of Fields: Square fields with fewer “point rows” will generally translate into higher cash rents as operators gain efficiencies from farming fields that are square.
- Previous Tillage Systems or Crops: Previous crops and tillage systems that allow for an easy transition for new operators may enhance the cash rent value.
- Field Border Characteristics: Fields surrounded by tree-lined fencerows, woodlots or other borders affecting crop growth at the field edge will negatively impact yield and therefore should be considered in rental negotiations.
- Wildlife Damage Potential: Fields adjacent to significant wildlife cover including woodlots, tree lined fencerows, creeks, streams, and such may limit production potential to border rows and should be considered in rental negotiations.
Secondary Factors Affecting Rental Rates:
- Buildings and Grain Storage Availability: Access to machinery and grain storage may enhance the value of the cropland rental rate.
- Location of Farm (Including Road Access): Proximity to prospective operators may determine how much operators are willing to bid for cash rents. Good road access will generally enhance cash rent amounts.
- USDA Farm Program Measurables: Farms that participate in the USDA Farm Program and have higher “program yields” may command higher cash rents than non-program farms.
- Services Provided by Operator: Operators that provide services such as clearing fence rows, snow removal and other services may be valued by the landowner. This may even be a partial substitute for cash rent compensation.
- Conditions of Lease: Conditions placed on the lease by the landowner may result in fewer prospective operators and a lower average cash rent.
- Payment Dates: Leases that require part or all of the rent to be paid early in the year (up-front) may result in lower rental rates due to higher borrowing or opportunity costs for the operator.
- Reputation of Landowner/Operator: Reputations of the parties may play a part in the cash rental negotiations. A landowner with a reputation of being difficult to work with may see cash rents negatively affected by this reputation. Farmers with a similar negative reputation may have to pay higher rents.
- Special Contracts: Farms with special contract commitments may restrict the operator from changing crops based on market conditions. This may negatively impact cash rents. There may also be contracts that positively affect cash rents such as high value crop contracts or contracts for receiving livestock manure.
The following sections of the fact sheet detail the 2016 survey results divided into western, northwest and southwest Ohio. Tables 1 through 3 also detail projected changes for long-term land value and cash rents, which will be explained later in the fact sheet in the “Additional Survey Results” section.
Western Ohio Results
Survey results from Western Ohio are summarized in Table 1. See Figure 1 for counties included in this region. Additional results, including year-over-year percentage change, rent per bushel of corn, and rent as a percentage of land value, are summarized in Tables 4 and 5.
 |
| Figure 1: Western Ohio |
Average Cropland
Survey results for average producing cropland show an average yield to be 169.4 bushels of corn per acre. Results show that the value of average cropland in western Ohio was $7,556 per acre in 2015. According to survey data, average producing cropland is expected to be valued at $7,034 per acre in 2016. This is a projected decrease of 6.9 percent.
Average cropland rented for an average of $200 per acre in 2015 according to survey results. Average cropland is expected to rent for $187 per acre in 2016 which amounts to a 6.5 percent decrease in cash rent year-over-year. This 2016 rental rate projection of $187 per acre equates to a cash rent of $1.10 per bushel of corn produced. Rents in the average cropland category are expected to equal 2.7 percent of land value in 2016.
Top Cropland
Survey results indicate top performing cropland in western Ohio averages 204.9 bushels of corn produced per acre and the average value of top cropland in 2015 was $9,434 per acre. According to this survey, top cropland in western Ohio is expected to be valued at $8,853 per acre in 2016. This is a projected decrease of 6.2 percent.
Top cropland in western Ohio rented for an average of $254 per acre in 2015 according to survey results. Top cropland is expected to rent for $239 per acre in 2016 (a decrease of 6.0 percent) which equates to a cash rent of $1.16 per bushel of corn produced. Rents in the top cropland category are expected to equal 2.7 percent of land value in 2016.
Poor Cropland
The survey summary shows the average yield for poor performing cropland equals 136.4 bushels of corn per acre, with the average value of poor cropland as $5,949 per acre in 2015. According to survey data, this poor producing cropland is expected to be valued at $5,465 per acre in 2016. This is a decrease of 8.1 percent.
Poor cropland rented for an average of $153 per acre in 2015 according to survey results. Cash rent for poor cropland is expected to average $141 per acre in 2016 which amounts to a 7.5 percent decrease in cash rent year-over-year. This 2016 rent projection of $141 per acre equates to a cash rent of $1.04 per bushel of corn produced in 2016. Rents in the poor cropland category are expected to equal 2.6 percent of land value in 2016.
| Table 1: Ohio Cropland Values and Cash Rents—Western Ohio Results | ||||||
| Land Class |
Average
|
Standard
Deviation
|
Range*
|
|||
| Average | Avg Corn Yield (bu/ac) | 169.4 | 16.8 | 186.2 | 152.5 | |
| Avg Soybean Yield (bu/ac) | 51.9 | 5.7 | 57.6 | 46.2 | ||
| Market Value per Acre | 2015 | $7,556 | $1,812 | $9,367 | $5,744 | |
| 2016 | $7,034 | $1,732 | $8,766 | $5,302 | ||
| Rent per Acre | 2015 | $200 | $43 | $243 | $157 | |
| 2016 | $187 | $37 | $225 | $150 | ||
| Top | Avg Corn Yield (bu/ac) | 204.9 | 22.7 | 227.6 | 182.3 | |
| Avg Soybean Yield (bu/ac) | 63.5 | 8.0 | 71.5 | 55.5 | ||
| Market Value per Acre | 2015 | $9,434 | $2,343 | $11,778 | $7,091 | |
| 2016 | $8,853 | $2,163 | $11,016 | $6,690 | ||
| Rent per Acre | 2015 | $254 | $55 | $309 | $199 | |
| 2016 | $239 | $48 | $287 | $191 | ||
| Poor | Avg Corn Yield (bu/ac) | 136.4 | 22.2 | 158.6 | 114.2 | |
| Avg Soybean Yield (bu/ac) | 40.3 | 7.5 | 47.7 | 32.8 | ||
| Market Value per Acre | 2015 | $5,949 | $1,642 | $7,591 | $4,306 | |
| 2016 | $5,465 | $1,552 | $7,017 | $3,913 | ||
| Rent per Acre | 2015 | $153 | $39 | $191 | $114 | |
| 2016 | $141 | $33 | $174 | $108 | ||
| Transition Land | 2015 | $13,701 | $5,864 | $19,565 | $7,838 | |
| 2016 | $13,713 | $6,376 | $20,089 | $7,336 | ||
| Five Year Projected Percent Change in Cropland Value | -8.46% | 10.31% | 1.85% | -18.76% | ||
| Five Year Projected Percent Change in Cash Rent | -8.05% | 11.44% | 3.39% | -19.50% | ||
| Mortgage Interest Rate—20 Year Fixed—Projected 2016 | 4.94% | 0.69% | 5.63% | 4.25% | ||
| Operating Loan Rate—Projected 2016 | 4.39% | 1.20% | 5.59% | 3.19% | ||
| Pasture Cash Rent—Projected 2016—Improved, Non-Rotation | $78 | $48 | $125 | $30 | ||
| Pasture Land Value—Projected 2016—Improved, Non-Rotation | $4,237 | $1,831 | $6,068 | $2,405 | ||
| * Range—One standard deviation above and below the average (mean). Approximately two-thirds of the responses fall within this range. | ||||||
Northwest Ohio Results
Survey results from northwest Ohio are summarized in Table 2. See Figure 2 for counties included in this region. Additional results, including year-over-year percentage change, rent per bushel of corn, and rent as a percentage of land value, are summarized in Tables 4 and 5.
 |
| Figure 2: Northwest Ohio |
Average Cropland
Yields for average producing cropland averages 162.1 bushels of corn per acre or 49.1 bushels of soybeans per acre. Results show the value of average cropland in northwest Ohio was $6,868 per acre in 2015. According to survey data, this average producing cropland is expected to be valued at $6,224 per acre in 2016. This is a projected decrease of 9.4 percent.
Average cropland rented for an average of $178 per acre in 2015 according to survey results and is expected to rent for $167 per acre in 2016, which is a year-over-year decrease of 6.2 percent. The 2016 rental rate of $167 per acre equals $1.03 per bushel of corn produced. Rents in the average cropland category are expected to equal 2.7 percent of land value in 2016.
Top Cropland
Survey results indicate top performing cropland in northwest Ohio averages 196.4 bushels of corn per acre or 59.7 bushels of soybeans per acre. Results also show the average value of top cropland was $8,649 per acre in 2015. According to this survey, top producing cropland in northwest Ohio is expected to be valued at $7,939 in 2016. This is a projected decrease of 8.2 percent.
Top cropland in northwest Ohio rented for an average of $225 per acre in 2015 and is expected to rent for $212 per acre in 2016 (a decrease of 5.6 percent) according to survey results, which equals $1.08 per bushel of corn produced. Rents in the top cropland category are expected to equal 2.7 percent of land value.
Poor Cropland
The survey summary shows the average yield for poor performing cropland in northwestern Ohio equals 130.0 bushels of corn per acre or 38.0 bushels of soybeans per acre. Results also show the average value of poor cropland was $5,298 per acre in 2015 and is expected to average $4,709 per acre in 2016. This is a projected decrease of 11.1 percent.
Poor cropland rented for an average of $138 per acre in 2015 and is expected to average $128 per acre in 2016 according to survey results (a 7.4 percent decrease) which equals $0.98 per bushel of corn produced. Rents in the poor cropland category are expected to equal 2.7 percent of land value in 2016.
The northwest region for the purposes of this survey includes: Williams, Fulton, Lucas, Ottawa, Defiance, Henry, Wood, Sandusky, Paulding, Putnam, Hancock, Seneca, Van Wert, Allen, Hardin, Wyandot, Crawford, Marion and Morrow counties and parts of Richland, Huron and Erie Counties, as shown in Figure 2. counties bordering this region to the south will also contain land parcels with cropland value and rental rate characteristics similar to northwest Ohio data.
| Table 2: Ohio Cropland Values and Cash Rents—Northwest Ohio Results | ||||||
|
Land Class
|
Average
|
Standard
Deviation
|
Range*
|
|||
| Average | Avg Corn Yield (bu/ac) | 162.1 | 17.6 | 179.7 | 144.6 | |
| Avg Soybean Yield (bu/ac) | 49.1 | 5.2 | 54.4 | 43.9 | ||
| Market Value per Acre | 2015 | $6,868 | $1,278 | $8,147 | $5,590 | |
| 2016 | $6,224 | $1,188 | $7,412 | $5,037 | ||
| Rent per Acre | 2015 | $178 | $25 | $203 | $153 | |
| 2016 | $167 | $22 | $189 | $145 | ||
| Top | Avg Corn Yield (bu/ac) | 196.4 | 19.9 | 216.3 | 176.6 | |
| Avg Soybean Yield (bu/ac) | 59.7 | 6.3 | 66.0 | 53.4 | ||
| Market Value per Acre | 2015 | $8,649 | $1,786 | $10,435 | $6,863 | |
| 2016 | $7,939 | $1,615 | $9,553 | $6,324 | ||
| Rent per Acre | 2015 | $225 | $32 | $257 | $192 | |
| 2016 | $212 | $29 | $241 | $183 | ||
| Poor | Avg Corn Yield (bu/ac) | 130.0 | 23.0 | 153.0 | 107.0 | |
| Avg Soybean Yield (bu/ac) | 38.0 | 6.1 | 44.1 | 31.9 | ||
| Market Value per Acre | 2015 | $5,298 | $1,149 | $6,447 | $4,149 | |
| 2016 | $4,709 | $1,063 | $5,771 | $3,646 | ||
| Rent per Acre | 2015 | $138 | $27 | $165 | $111 | |
| 2016 | $128 | $23 | $151 | $105 | ||
| Transition Land | 2015 | $13,483 | $4,899 | $18,383 | $8,584 | |
| 2106 | $13,930 | $6,491 | $20,421 | $7,439 | ||
| Five Year Projected Percent Change in Cropland Value | -8.27% | 9.09% | 0.82% | -17.36% | ||
| Five Year Projected Percent Change in Cash Rent | -6.22% | 9.68% | 3.46% | -15.90% | ||
| Mortgage Interest Rate—20 Year Fixed—Projected 2016 | 4.95% | 0.70% | 5.64% | 4.25% | ||
| Operating Loan Rate—Projected 2016 | 4.36% | 0.91% | 5.27% | 3.45% | ||
| Pasture Cash Rent—Projected 2016—Improved, Non-Rotation | $80 | $46 | $126 | $34 | ||
| Pasture Land Value—Projected 2016—Improved, Non-Rotation | $3,863 | $1,536 | $5,398 | $2,327 | ||
| * Range—One standard deviation above and below the average (mean). Approximately two-thirds of the responses fall within this range. | ||||||
Southwest Ohio Results
Survey results from southwest Ohio are summarized in Table 3. See Figure 3 for counties included in this region. Additional results, including year-over-year percentage change, rent per bushel of corn, and rent as a percent of land value, are summarized in Tables 4 and 5.
 |
| Figure 3: Southwest Ohio |
Average Cropland
Yields for average cropland equals 174.6 bushels of corn per acre according to the survey data. Results show the value of average cropland in southwest Ohio was $8,077 per acre in 2015. According to survey data, average producing cropland is expected to be valued at $7,647 per acre in 2016. This is a projected decrease of 5.3 percent.
Average cropland rented for an average of $217 per acre in 2015 and is expected to rent for $202 per acre in 2016 according to survey results (a 6.7 percent decrease) which equals $1.16 per bushel of corn produced. Rents in the average cropland category are expected to equal 2.6 percent of land value in 2016.
Top Cropland
Survey results indicate top performing cropland in southwest Ohio averages 211.6 bushels of corn per acre or 66.5 bushels of soybeans per acre. Results also show that the average value of top cropland was $10,063 per acre in 2015. According to this survey, top producing cropland in southwest Ohio is expected to be valued on average at $9,584 per acre in 2016. This is a projected decrease of 4.8 percent.
Top cropland in southwest Ohio rented for an average of $276 per acre in 2015 and is expected to rent for $259 per acre in 2016 according to survey results which is a year-over-year decrease of 6.3 percent. The 2016 rental rate of $259 per acre equals $1.22 per bushel of corn produced. Rents in the top cropland category are expected to equal 2.7 percent of land value in 2016.
Poor Cropland
The survey summary shows the average yield for poor cropland in southwestern Ohio equals 141.4 bushels of corn per acre. Results also show that the average value of poor cropland was $6,476 per acre in 2015. According to survey data, poor producing cropland is expected to be valued at $6,078 per acre in 2016. This is a decrease of 6.1 percent.
Poor cropland rented for an average of $165 per acre in 2015 and is expected to average $152 per acre in 2016 according to survey results (a 7.6 percent decrease) which equals $1.08 per bushel of corn produced. Rents in the poor cropland category are expected to equal 2.5 percent of land value in 2016.
The southwest region for the purposes of this survey includes: Mercer, Auglaize, Shelby, Logan, Union, Delaware, Darke, Miami, Champaign, Clark, Madison, Franklin, Preble, Montgomery, Greene, Clinton, Fayette and Pickaway counties and parts of Butler, Warren, Brown, Highland and Ross counties as shown in Figure 3. Counties bordering this region to the north will also contain land parcels with cropland value and rental rate characteristics similar to southwest Ohio data.
| Table 3: Ohio Cropland Values and Cash Rents—Southwest Ohio Results | ||||||
| Land Class |
Average
|
Standard
Deviation
|
Range*
|
|||
| Average | Avg Corn Yield (bu/ac) | 174.6 | 14.3 | 188.9 | 160.3 | |
| Avg Soybean Yield (bu/ac) | 53.9 | 5.2 | 59.1 | 48.7 | ||
| Market Value per Acre | 2015 | $8,077 | $1,984 | $10,061 | $6,092 | |
| 2016 | $7,647 | $1,833 | $9,480 | $5,814 | ||
| Rent per Acre | 2015 | $217 | $46 | $263 | $171 | |
| 2016 | $202 | $40 | $242 | $163 | ||
| Top | Avg Corn Yield (bu/ac) | 211.6 | 22.7 | 234.2 | 188.9 | |
| Avg Soybean Yield (bu/ac) | 66.5 | 8.0 | 74.5 | 58.4 | ||
| Market Value per Acre | 2015 | $10,063 | $2,552 | $12,615 | $7,510 | |
| 2016 | $9,584 | $2,277 | $11,861 | $7,307 | ||
| Rent per Acre | 2015 | $276 | $59 | $335 | $218 | |
| 2016 | $259 | $50 | $309 | $209 | ||
| Poor | Avg Corn Yield (bu/ac) | 141.4 | 20.3 | 161.7 | 121.1 | |
| Avg Soybean Yield (bu/ac) | 42.1 | 8.0 | 50.1 | 34.1 | ||
| Market Value per Acre | 2015 | $6,476 | $1,796 | $8,271 | $4,680 | |
| 2016 | $6,078 | $1,621 | $7,699 | $4,458 | ||
| Rent per Acre | 2015 | $165 | $43 | $207 | $122 | |
| 2016 | $152 | $36 | $188 | $116 | ||
| Transition Land | 2015 | $13,857 | $6,581 | $20,438 | $7,277 | |
| 2106 | $13,557 | $6,450 | $20,007 | $7,107 | ||
| Five Year Projected Percent Change in Cropland Value | -8.60% | 11.23% | 2.63% | -19.83% | ||
| Five Year Projected Percent Change in Cash Rent | -9.53% | 12.56% | 3.03% | -22.09% | ||
| Mortgage Interest Rate—20 Year Fixed—Projected 2016 | 4.93% | 0.68% | 5.62% | 4.25% | ||
| Operating Loan Rate—Projected 2016 | 4.42% | 1.43% | 5.86% | 2.99% | ||
| Pasture Cash Rent—Projected 2016—Improved, Non-Rotation | $77 | $49 | $125 | $28 | ||
| Pasture Land Value—Projected 2016—Improved, Non-Rotation | $4,470 | $1,981 | $6,452 | $2,489 | ||
| * Range—One standard deviation above and below the average (mean). Approximately two-thirds of the responses fall within this range. | ||||||
| Table 4. Average Estimated Ohio Land Value Per Acre (Tillable, Bare Land), Per Bushel Corn and Soybean Yields, by Geographical Area and Land Class. Ohio Cropland Values and Cash Rents Survey 2014-15. | ||||||
| Land Value | ||||||
| Dollars Per Acre | ||||||
| Area |
Land Class
|
Corn bu/ac
|
Soy bu/ac
|
2015
$/ac
|
2016*
$/ac
|
% Change
15 to 16
|
| Western | Average | 169.4 | 51.9 | $7,556 | $7,034 | -6.9% |
| Top | 204.9 | 63.5 | $9,434 | $8,853 | -6.2% | |
| Poor | 136.4 | 40.3 | $5,949 | $5,465 | -8.1% | |
| Northwest | Average | 162.1 | 49.1 | $6,868 | $6,224 | -9.4% |
| Top | 196.4 | 59.7 | $8,649 | $7,939 | -8.2% | |
| Poor | 130.0 | 38.0 | $5,298 | $4,709 | -11.1% | |
| Southwest | Average | 174.6 | 53.9 | $8,077 | $7,647 | -5.3% |
| Top | 211.6 | 66.5 | $10,063 | $9,584 | -4.8% | |
| Poor | 141.4 | 42.1 | $6,476 | $6,078 | -6.1% | |
| * Projected Land Value | ||||||
| Table 5. Average Estimated Ohio Cash Rent Per Acre (Tillable, Bare Land), Per Bushel Corn and Soybean Yields, by Geographical Area and Land Class. Ohio Cropland Values and Cash Rents Survey 2015-16 | ||||||||||
| Rent Per Acre | Rent per Bushel Corn |
Rent per Bushel Corn |
Rent as % of Land Value |
Rent as % of Land Value |
||||||
| Area | Land Class | Corn bu/ac | Soy bu/ac | 2015 $/ac |
2016* $/ac |
% Change 15 to 16 |
2015 $/bu |
2016* $/bu |
2015 % |
2016* % |
| Western | Average | 169.4 | 51.9 | $200 | $187 | -6.5% | $1.18 | $1.10 | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| Top | 204.9 | 63.5 | $254 | $239 | -6.0% | $1.24 | $1.16 | 2.7% | 2.7% | |
| Poor | 136.4 | 40.3 | $153 | $141 | -7.5% | $1.12 | $1.04 | 2.6% | 2.6% | |
| Northwest | Average | 162.1 | 49.1 | $178 | $167 | -6.2% | $1.10 | $1.03 | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| Top | 196.4 | 59.7 | $225 | $212 | -5.6% | $1.14 | $1.08 | 2.6% | 2.7% | |
| Poor | 130.0 | 38.0 | $138 | $128 | -7.4% | $1.06 | $0.98 | 2.6% | 2.7% | |
| Southwest | Average | 174.6 | 53.9 | $217 | $202 | -6.7% | $1.24 | $1.16 | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| Top | 211.6 | 66.5 | $276 | $259 | -6.3% | $1.31 | $1.22 | 2.7% | 2.7% | |
| Poor | 141.4 | 42.1 | $165 | $152 | -7.6% | $1.16 | $1.08 | 2.5% | 2.5% | |
| * Projected Rental Rate | ||||||||||
Transition Land
Survey respondents estimated the average value of “transition land,” or land being held for sale for residential, commercial or industrial uses, to be $13,701 in 2015 and is expected to be $13,713 in 2016.
Projected Estimates of Land Values and Cash Rents
Survey respondents were asked to give their best estimates for long-term land value and cash rent change. The average estimate of cropland value change in the next five years for western Ohio (Table 1) is a decrease of 8.46 percent (for the entire five-year period). Responses for the five-year cropland value change ranged from an increase of 10 percent to a decrease of 50 percent.
The average estimate of cash rent change in the next five years is a decrease of 8.05 percent. The cash rent change also had a considerable large rand, with responses ranging from an increase of 20 percent to a decrease of 50 percent. These estimates are summarized in Tables 1 through 3.
Interest Rates
Survey respondents were asked to estimate interest rates for 2016 for two borrowing terms: 20 year fixed-rate mortgage and operating loan. The average estimate, according to survey respondents, of 20 year fixed-rate mortgage borrowing is 4.94 percent for 2016. According to the same respondents, the average estimate of operating loan interest rates is 4.39 percent for 2016.
Pasture Land Value and Rental Rates
According to the survey, pasture cash rents are projected to average $78 per acre in western Ohio in 2016, while the average value of pasture land is expected to average $4,237 per acre.
The summary of these responses is presented in Tables 1 through 3 and includes:
- Transitional land values
- Five-year projected percent change in cropland value
- Five-year projected percent change in cash rent
- Mortgage interest rate—20 year fixed—projected 2015
- Operating loan rate—projected 2015
- Pasture cash rent—projected 2015, improved, non-rotation
- Pasture land value—projected 2015, improved, non-rotation.
Additional Resources
This study adds to existing research on Ohio farmland values and cash rents that can assist producers and landowners with purchase and rental decisions. Existing research is available by searching at ohioline.osu.edu:
- Western Ohio Cropland Values and Cash Rents 2014-15
- Western Ohio Cropland Values and Cash Rents 2013-14
- Western Ohio Cropland Values and Cash Rents 2012-13
- Western Ohio Cropland Values and Cash Rents 2011-12
- Western Ohio Cropland Values and Cash Rents 2010-11
- Western Ohio Cropland Values and Cash Rents 2009-10
Search the Ohio State University Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Developmental Economics at aede.osu.edu for:
- Ohio Cropland Values and Cash Rents 2005-06
- Ohio Farm Real Estate Markets (2003)
Also, check with your local Ohio State University Extension office for local land value/rental survey summaries. For additional information on farmland lease issues see the Department of Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics (AEDE) Farm Management webpage
Written March 20, 2017 by Barry Ward, Assistant Professor and Leader, Production Business Management, Agriculture and Natural Resources, Ohio State University Extension.